Fiji’s economic growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded to 3.8%, up from 2.8% projected earlier this year, driven by stronger-than-expected tourism and consumption.
Visitor arrivals rose by 6.3% in the year to September, “almost twice the projected increase in arrivals”. The Macroeconomic Committee attributed the growth to increased spending, higher incomes, remittances, and government expenditure, tourism-driven demand and pick-up in new lending.
The 2025 growth forecast is also revised upwards to 3.4% from 3%, while 2026 and 2027 projections remain at 2.9% and 2.8%, respectively, returning to long-term trends. However, some sectors, including fishing, mining, and manufacturing, remain below pre-pandemic levels, while others such as agriculture, electricity, education, IT, financial and insurance as well as health have surpassed them.
Despite these improvements, investment activity is slower than expected due to high-cost business environment, impacting the completion of existing and commencement of new projects.
The committee highlighted risks from natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, and global economic slowdowns but pointed to opportunities in increased tourist arrivals and new flight routes.
Ariff Ali, Chairman of the Macroeconomic Committee and Reserve Bank of Fiji Governor, urged continued caution, stating, “Although there are symptoms of improvement, we must remain agile to create an economic terrain to foster sustainable economic growth.”
The Committee will review these projections in mid-2025.
